Super Bowl Preview
I am unhappy with both teams
Before I get in to my analysis of the game, I want to highlight some of the ways that this Super Bowl is historic.
Most Unlikely Super Bowl Matchup Ever
Seattle was 60/1 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason, and New England was 80/1. By that metric this is the most unlikely Super Bowl matchup in history, as the first ever to involve two teams who were both 60/1 or greater before the season. The closest second is the Super Bowl following the 1981 season, where the 49ers were 50/1 and the Bengals were 60/1. Another thing to keep in mind is that even if the Pats win they will not be the most unlikely Super Bowl winner ever, as that title will likely be held for all eternity by Kurt Warner’s 1999 Rams, who were 150/1 preseason.
Patriots remarkable turnaround
The Patriots made the Super Bowl in 2019, with Brady and Belichick at the helm. Now, here they are again in 2026, with Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel. So, the question that I asked myself was “Is this 7 years the shortest gap between Super Bowls for a team that has a new head coach and quarterback?” My research found quite a few teams that did one end of the equation, but not both. In other words, a team might make two Super Bowls a short time apart with two different coaches but the QB stayed the same, or vice versa.
The only team to have a shorter gap than the 2019-2026 Patriots is… the 1997-2001 Patriots! The Pats made the Super Bowl in 1997 with Bill Parcels and Drew Bledsoe, only to turn around and make it again 4 years later with Bill B and Brady. There must be something in the water up there in Foxborough.
Geno Smith, lol
My unlicensed stock consultant, head coach landing spot savant, and Phoenix Waste Management Open Champion Matt asked an excellent question last week. Given how well Seattle is doing without Geno and how poorly Vegas did with him, Don asked “In NFL history, has a player ever left a team that immediately made the Super Bowl and joined a team that immediately finished last?”
The short answer here is no, that has never happened before this year. I cannot say so definitely, because there are a lot of players on an NFL roster and it is possible that some random special teamer has had the Geno experience that I was unable to uncover in my research. But certainly no QB has ever done this before, and no big name skill position player either. The closest example I could find would probably be the Seahawks themselves after the departure of Russell Wilson in 2021. The Broncos tanked immediately after Russ joined, while Seattle was better than expected after his departure. Still, the Seahawks did not come close to winning the NFC, and the Broncos weren’t the worst team in the league. Geno is all alone with that distinction.
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Now, on to the game itself! I think Seattle wins, and I think they do so comfortably. They are the better team in all facets, and New England has gotten very lucky with their weak opponents this year. I would be fine betting them on the moneyline at -230, and I also think they cover the spread at -4.5. However, I think the best way to bet on the Seahawks would be to just choose Sam Darnold MVP at +130. If they win it is unlikely that another player gets the award, especially given the feel good, comeback nature of Sam’s story. So, you are essentially getting Seattle to win at plus money instead of -230. That is too good to pass up! Now, on to the fun stuff.
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A Pringles ad to appear before a Ritz ad -110
Pringles has a long and successful history of Super Bowl ads, and I remember fondly the “hand stuck in the container” bit from 2020. Meanwhile, Ritz is a largely irrelevant cracker in the modern day, and I just don’t see how they can compete for top billing. At 50/50 odds, I am happy to back Pringles.
Stefon Diggs to be shown before Jaxon Smith-Njigba during America the Beautiful -135
Diggs is just a far more interesting character than JSN, especially for the casual football fan that might be tuning in this Sunday. The producers know this, and so I can confidently say the camera will seek him out far more quickly than it will his WR1 counterpart.
Over 3.5 Olympics promos
The Super Bowl is on NBC, the same channel that is hosting the Olympics in just a few short weeks. This number seems very low to me. I would imagine that they are going to be constantly blasting us with ads every chance they get. All we need is two per half to cash this bet, which is a no brainer in my book.