Summer Soccer Preview
What is going on in the beautiful game
In the past I did spend a couple of seasons handicapping the Premier League full time, but I stopped to focus on other sports after only hitting at a 50% clip. Since then, however, I have had a great deal of success betting international tournaments and picking and choosing my spots for club bets. From the 2020 Euros through now, I have went 27-19 (59%) for +9.46 units. Obviously this is a small sample size, but I feel confident in my process and look forward to building some more success in the coming weeks.
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English Championship Playoff: Leeds vs. Southampton, 10/26 at 10:00 am EST
Southampton +0.5 at -160 bet 1.4 to win 0.88
These teams were separated by only three points on the season, with Southampton winning both matchups between the squads. The Saints have an elite offense which has been one of the few able to punch through Leeds’ solid defense this year, led by the great Adam Armstrong. I also think that this match will be cagey with so much on the line. Neither team will be eager to expose themselves, a fact which favors the underdog. I expect Southampton to send this to extra time, if not pulling off the upset outright.
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UEFA Champions League: Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid, 6/1 at 3:00 pm EST
Dortmund +0.5 at +125 bet 1 to win 1.25
I understand why the books have to make Real the favorite here. They are a much bigger and generally more successful club, with the better roster on paper. Nevertheless, I think that this Dortmund squad will play them very tough. Their center back duo has been elite, shutting out PSG across two matches. As is often the case with this team they are smart, scrappy, and will be very well prepared. Getting plus money to simply not lose in regulation is too much value for me to pass up.
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Germany to win Euros +500 bet 1 to win 5
Kai Havertz top scorer +3300 bet 0.1 to win 3.3
I am all in on this German squad as they host this year’s Euros. As my crack research team at the JRSN discovered, though not often winning the host country has had a lot of success in this event of late. I think Germany will especially benefit from the emotions of the home crowd for several reasons. They have wracked up disappointing results ever since their world cup win in 2014, making them extra hungry. This is also likely a final farewell to the last remaining veterans of that team, namely Toni Kroos, Thomas Mueller, and Manuel Neuer. A victory here would mean everything for this country.
I also believe that their squad is well equipped for a victory. In my opinion they have the second best roster of the tournament after England, whom I expect to be ruined by Southgate’s poor management. They have an incredibly deep team especially in the midfield, with an elite mix of young talent and experience across the board. I have really liked the lineups that Nagelsmann has set for his friendlies, and I think that carries over to success on the big stage. I am betting here that Havertz will get the starts at the number nine position, in which case he would be very well positioned to wrack up goals. After a great club season this could be the event that launches Havertz to elite status, and I see a lot of value on him with such long odds.
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Argentina to win Copa America +170 bet 1 to win 1.7
This is the only chalk that I plan to eat this summer, but I have to back the favorites in this spot. The rosters of Brazil and other Western Hemisphere rivals are severely depleted, whilst Argentina’s World Cup winning roster remains largely intact, especially at key positions such as keeper, center back, and of course the Messi and Alvarez combo up front. This number may seem short for a team to win an entire tournament, but a 37% implied probability to win it all actually is lower than I would like with such a large discrepancy in talent. I never thought that I would say these words, but Argentina is the only team in this event that I can trust right now.