NFL Draft QB Ranking
Who are the signal callers to watch?
Before I dive in, I want to take a moment to address the Lions hiring Drew Petzing as offensive coordinator. On July 29, 2025 I wrote the following about John Morton, Detroit’s first ill fated attempt to replace Ben Johnson.
“Between college and pro, Morton has been an offensive coach in some capacity or another for nearly 30 years. He has spent that time bouncing around from team to team, with very few standout offensive seasons to show for it. It does say something that Campbell and Holmes chose to bring him back rather than going for a younger or in house candidate, however, and it would be pretty tough to mess up a roster this talented.”
In other words, I didn’t see the light, but I trusted the process. The few Lions fans who have optimism about the Petzing move, seem to be doing so with the exact same sentiment. Comments like “Dan must have seen something!” are common. All I have to say to that is fool me once…
Unlike Morton, who came from more downstream assistant roles, Petzing has been a primary play caller for the last few years. The Cardinals were never a top half offense in that time, despite decent talent. My primary complaint with him schematically is that he turned Marvin Harrison Jr, an elite prospect that his team spent high draft capital on, into a sacrificial X receiver. Below are some stats that highlight the issue, using two other talented, versatile receivers as a reference.
Average depth of target:
Marvin Harrison Jr: 14.1
Justin Jefferson: 10.9
Ja’Marr Chase: 9.9
Slot alignment:
MHJ: 19%
JJ: 29%
Chase: 27%
Off line alignment:
MHJ: 20%
JJ: 39%
Chase: 40%
As you can see, this shows a shocking lack of variety in Marv’s usage. Drew had him doing the same inefficient thing every play, despite being the most talented WR on the team.
Just for the sake of argument, let’s say I’m wrong, and Petzing is great. In that case, guess what happens to him in a few years? He leaves to go become a head coach. Then, if the guy they hire to replace Petzing is good, guess what happens to him in a few years? He leaves to be a head coach. Kelvin Sheppard was pretty solid last year, and already his name is getting thrown around as a head coach candidate.
Eventually, they will hire another bust and have another lost season. As my good friend Matt first pointed out and teams are starting to realize, the only way to break the cycle of coordinator brain drain is to get a head coach who is also an elite coordinator on one side of the ball or the other. If your HC needs two good coordinators to succeed, as Dan appears to, then you will find yourself on the back foot long term as a franchise.
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One of my favorite articles every year is my QB prospect ranking. Usually, I go at least five QBs deep, but this year is unique in that all the top guys are returning to college. In the case of Trinidad Chambliss, he has actively filed multiple lawsuits in order to avoid entering the draft. There are only two QBs I’d draft this year based on the current class, so there are only two I analyzed. If you’d like me to break down some other names feel free to leave a comment or text me! Without further ado.
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Fernando Mendoza, QB Indiana
Play style comp: Joe Flacco
I said in the pre-season that Mendoza was the smartest prospect in this class, but I am amending that to say the smartest prospect that I have ever scouted. His ability to diagnose plays pre-snap and make the right read is second to none, and he adjusts protections like a seasoned pro. Even after the snap, there are multiple reps of him directing his wide receivers with his hands like an orchestra conductor before making the throw. While Mendoza won’t be setting the combine on fire, he is a surprisingly athletic runner for 6’5 and 225. His numbers this year are out of this world, posting 3,172 yards to go along with 36 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 72.3% completion percentage on 9.6 yards per attempt. Doing that in the Big Ten, without an arsenal of 5 stars around him, is crazy impressive.
Mendoza also cleaned up his mechanics a lot this offseason. Despite the long arms his throwing motion is quick and fluid, and his shoulders stay comfortably over his feet. His arm is precise and powerful. I have basically nothing bad to say about Mendoza, as his quirky personality doesn’t bother me in the slightest.
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Ty Simpson, QB Alabama
Play style comp: Drew Locke
Simpson throws the prettiest spiral of this class. I’m not saying that he will make the Matt Ramirez All Spiral First Team™️, but he’s got a tight spin that is nice to watch. He’s got some moxy to his game as well, with the ability to make some gutsy throws over the middle. Similar to Mendoza Simpson has some sneaky rushing upside, even converting some designed runs on occasion. He can get the ball down the field as well, leaving me with no questions about his arm strength. His processing speed is fine too.
The problem with Simpson is accuracy. He is extremely inconsistent, with some baffling misses. Whether it be overthrows or under throws, you just can’t trust Simpson to put the ball where it belongs. He rarely throws guys open either, often waiting too long for them to have multiple steps before making the play. Without the tools to overcome it, I worry that Simpson will be unable make a name for himself in the NFL where timing, anticipation and accuracy are key.